Any fight prediction is an exercise in speculation. Usually though the fighters concerned have some kind of recent track record with which to weigh up their chances of successfully beating their opponent. In the cases of both Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem however there isn't a great deal that is recently relevant to go on.
Brock Lesnar rose through the ranks of the heavyweight division in the UFC quickly despite an initial loss to Frank Mir. Brock took the title at UFC 91 when he beat veteran Randy Couture and defended the belt in a rematch against Frank Mir at UFC 100. He was due to fight Shane Carwin next but the match was postponed when Lesnar was forced to undergo surgery for diverticulitis (intestinal inflammation). Brock eventually returned to the Octagon to face Shane and was knocked silly in the first round but held on to come out for the second. Carwin had clearly punched himself out and Lesnar was able to submit him for the win. Brock failed to defend his title for a third time and lost to Cain Velasquez at UFC 121. This was followed by a stint as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter opposite Junior Dos Santos. Typically the two coaches face one another at the season's climax but by this time Brock Lesnar had once again been diagnosed with diverticulitis and would need to undergo surgery (Junior Dos Santos defeated replacement Shane Carwin at UFC 131). The surgery was successful and Brock has been back in training for his return to the Octagon since being cleared.
Alistair Overeem on the other hand is making his debut for the UFC. Overeem is an accomplished fighter, most famous for winning the 2010 K-1 Heavyweight Grand Prix in Japan (a kickboxing promotion). Overeem comes from a strong Dutch background in Muay Thai but has also been successful as an MMA fighter, becoming the Strikeforce Heavyweight champion in 2007 the the Dream Interim Heavyweight champion in 2010. Overeem also fought in Pride mostly as a middleweight (equivalent to a light heavyweight in the UFC) with some success. It was in his Pride days that Alistair faced some of the top names in MMA but lost to Chuck Liddell and Mauricio Shogun Rua twice among others.
There are two questions then: How much of an impact will Brock Lesnar's surgery and long absence have on his performance and will Alistair Overeem be able to step up his game to beat top notch opposition?
The consensus of opinion seems to center around the question mark raised by Lesnar's surgery. With nothing to go on, many commentators are highlighting this as a possible factor in deciding the match. Personally though I am going to discount that as a potential determinant. I don't think the fight, either way it goes, will last long enough for any ring rust in the conditioning department and / or any health concerns to surface on the part of Brock.
Alistair Overeem hasn't faced anyone that is pound for pound comparable to Lesnar since his Pride days but it must be remembered that he was fighting at a lower weight class then, the participation in which, Overeem maintains, led him to feeling dehydrated from the weight cuts he was having to do. Since relaxing his dietary considerations (and consuming copious amounts of horse meat, which is very popular if expensive in Japan) he has both bulked up and gone on to become one of the top kickboxing and MMA fighters in the world. Naturally though the advantage goes to Lesnar if the fight goes to the ground.
What I anticipate the deciding factor being however is whether or not Brock Lesnar has acclimatized himself to not only getting hit in the stand up, but even just being threatened with a punch. Against both Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquex Lesnar looked very uncomfortable dealing with shots coming in at him and wasn't just prone to backing off but running off at times. Overeem is too good a striker for this not to play a crucial part if Lesnar is going to back away. I am not talking about physical conditioning here and the question of whether or not Brock Lesnar can take a shot, but something more fundamental: whether he can stand there and give as good as he gets. Lesnar's advantage is in moving forward and going for the take down. If he allows his fear of getting hit to control him and starts going backward then he is severely lessening his chances of victory. And as powerful as both Carwin and Velasquez are, Overeem is stronger, better co-ordinated and better able to use combinations to chase Lesnar if he retreats.
I will be looking out for Lesnar's reaction to Overeem's stand up. That is where I believe the fight will be decided. If Lesnar can weather the storm, trade a blow or two, and stay aggressive in the pocket to gain the take down, I think he can win. If not; if he retreats from Alistair's power then I think he will be handed another defeat and Overeem will become the #1 contender.
