Jon Jones vs
Lyoto Machida
UFC 140 Prediction

Machida on the other hand is just getting back into a winning streak. He claimed the title in UFC 98 winning against Rashad Evans. His first title defense was against Shogun Rua at UFC 104 in which the karate fighter was dominated and, so the consensus of opinion goes, should have lost the decision. The fight was close enough for Dana White to order an immediate rematch and Rua took the title at UFC 113 hunting down Lyoto and punishing him severely before he had any chance to get his elusive style of fighting going. Machida came back and lost a close decision to Rampage Jackson at UFC 123 (a fight I had Machida winning). In his next match Lyoto won with one of the most spectacular knock outs seen in MMA: a jump front kick to the face of Hall-of-Famer Randy Couture, a fight that saw Couture retire from the Octagon for good.

Jon Jones is known to be an unorthodox fighter...much the same as Machida was when he was then-undefeated and on his way to claiming the belt. In his last fight against Jackson though Jones only sometimes looked unorthodox, and at those times he was never as effective as he had been in his previous fights. Rampage noted that he had trained in the expectation of needing to react to off-the-wall technique and although he got caught a couple of times, he didn't suffer any damage. The problem Jackson had was his inability to counter the highly orthodox ploy of Jones keeping his lead arm extended thereby floating his fingers in front of Rampage's face, inviting him to move forward and flinch and Jones' low kicks to the knee that also kept Jackson at a distance. Rampage, utilizing the squarer boxing / Muay Thai type stance, had no way of closing the gap effectively and he was at the mercy of Jones' longer reach throughout the fight.

Machida, I would argue, has the perfect style for countering what we saw Jones doing in his fight against Rampage. Like most MMA fighters - even the top ones - Jon Jones appears to find it extremely difficult to string effective combinations together in the center of the Octagon (as opposed to when he has his opponent backed up against the cage wall). Assuming he can deal with anything unorthodox, Lyoto's style is ideally suited for taking him past and inside Jon's longer reach. Much of what Machida is famous for was nullified in his matches against Shogun Rua, a man who can use combinations effectively to cut off his opponent's escape routes. Against singular attacks, and especially the extended arm that Jones was using so much against Rampage, Lyoto should have no problem angling into and past the attack to take him into striking range. Here Jones is for the most part untested. We don't really know how strong his chin is. Lyoto however, as a karate practitioner, has been practicing the lunge punch throughout his career and while he may not appear to have the same ability to torque his body the way someone like Junior Dos Santos does when punching, Machida is able to time his punches with his lead leg falling forward onto the ground, thereby ensuring he has a tremendous amount of his body weight behind each technique.

I therefore give the advantage in the stand up to Machida. If any style is designed to take counter the linear approach taken by Jon Jones, it is Shotokan.

Moving onto the ground game, I have to go with Jon Jones here. Lyoto certainly isn't as weak as one might think he would be, but still, this is far from his forte and Jones' size, strength and weight will be dominant factors here, aside from Jon's background in wrestling. Getting Machida to the ground is going to be a problem for Jones though given how elusive Machida is. While Jones enjoys a reach advantage, that same distance is his enemy when shooting for a taken down and adds vital split seconds to the completion of the technique in its entirety, allowing Machida to defend or, worse from Jones' perspective, evade and counter strike from the side. Lyoto will be vulnerable though when he moves in to make his own attacks and will need to be careful Jones is not able to get his take downs into play. Machida needs to be in and out as quickly as possible. Because of this, I don't think he is likely to have a serious chance of winning by knock out and must instead stay patient and take the fight on points. If Jones can get Machida to the ground then I think that is where he is most likely to take the win, probably through ground and pound.

So, if the fight stays a stand up duel, I will go with Lyoto Machida for a points win. If the match goes to the ground then Jon Jones by TKO via punches (ground and pound).

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