Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem at UFC 141
This may have been a short fight, but it was one that could well signal a quantum leap forward in the strategy used by strikers against grapplers in the future. I will get onto that in a second.
First up is to note that Lesnar's lack of mental conditioning let him down once again. I noted in my prediction for UFC 141
that I felt the deciding factor would be whether or not Brock had trained himself - mentally more than physically - to stand and bang or if he would retreat from power strikes as we had seen him do against Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez. If he started going backward he wouldn't be able to easily get into a position where he could use his wrestling skills after a take down. What we saw wasn't as pronounced as in previous fights but in paying attention to Lesnar's stance it was clear that he was thinking defense more than offense as his weight, much of the time, was placed on his rear leg. He made a few token efforts to punch but by the time he had transferred his weight from his rear leg to his lead leg he had no chance of connecting with such a telegraphed movement against a highly trained kickboxer like Alistair Overeem. Lesnar's fate was all but sealed by his refusal to move aggressively forward, take a few shots and take down the Reem.
Now how Overeem did the job on Lesnar has, I believe, enormous repercussions for the world of MMA and UFC 141 could become a defining moment in the evolution of the sport. I am writing a separate blog entry to deal with this issue in more depth but suffice to say Alistair's strategy was outstanding. Overeem took his time in closing the gap on Lesnar but rather than use punches or kicks as one might expect, he closed the distance to deliver knee strikes. The knee is the worst nightmare for a grappler looking to shoot in low. However as a counter-attack tool to a single or double leg attempt, as devastating as it is, the knee strike is very difficult to pull off against a take down. Overeem, by using it as his primary weapon, overcame the problem of some very difficult timing issues and inflicted a lot of damage on Lesnar in the process. The final kick he delivered was essentially a KO by body kick it was that powerful, though the official result was TKO by punches to the downed Brock.
This sets up a very interesting title match between Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem. Two of the nicest people in the MMA world and both primarily strikers. As of right now, I am going with Overeem.
Brock Lesnar also announced his retirement from MMA at UFC 141 moments after his loss. He has undergone surgery twice now and to return from it once at such a high level of competition is amazing. Twice has clearly taken it out of him and if he can't resolve his issues with getting punched he is most likely going to suffer more defeats in the future. I wish him all the best.
Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone at UFC 141
This fight was always going to be a difficult one to call. Before the fight I would have given the advantage in the stand up to Cerrone, believing him to be more versatile given his Muay Thai background vs Diaz's boxing. What we saw though was a superb display of boxing skills that caused Cerrone to be completely thrown off his game. As with the Overeem vs Lesnar fight, observations on the match between Diaz and Cerrone are worth a separate blog entry in their own right and I am currently writing something to discuss the effects of pain and punishment on disrupting a game plan. After Cerrone gave Diaz the finger rather than touch gloves, Nate came out punching...and didn't stop for 15 minutes. There were moments when the Cowboy was able to land some powerful Thai round kicks and put Nick on the floor, but for the most part Cerrone spent the fight with a look of constant surprise on his face as shot after shot landed and scored point after point. Like his brother Nick, Nate doesn't really look for a knock out blow. He 'simply' puts together two or three punch combinations which cumulatively cause more and more damage. By the end of the first round Cowboy's face looked in a bad way and that must play on the minds of the judges. Cerrone made a bit of a comeback in the third (after Diaz returned the finger before the round started) but never looked like he was going to do enough to win the fight outright.
Diaz's main strength, aside from his boxing skills, is his ability to get hit and still keep pressing forward. This stands in stark contrast to Brock Lesnar. Diaz took his share of punches too but he was like a zombie in some movie that takes a full shotgun blast to the chest, totters for a moment, and then keeps going forward. All we saw from Diaz were momentary pauses in his attacks (except for when Cerrone's kicks put him on the floor...then the pauses were just a touch longer while Nate picked himself up). Every punch that Cerrone took suppressed his ability to execute his game plan; every punch that Diaz took was shrugged off and then it was back to business. Really, that was the difference in the fight: Diaz dealt with getting hit better than Cerrone did. This match fully deserved to win Fight of the Night at UFC 141.
Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks at UFC 141
I can't help but feel sorry for Jon Fitch. He started 2011 training for a match with BJ Penn in a fight that would determine if he could progress on to a rematch and title fight with Georges St Pierre for the welterweight belt. He was (sometimes heavily) criticized by some for his plodding performances that were less than appealing for the average PPV fan but he had picked up the uber useful habit of winning fight after fight. The only loss he had suffered in the UFC had been against GSP for the title at UFC 87 and since then he had been beating everyone put in front of him to line up another shot at the belt. Against Penn at UFC 127 he looked shaky and only a very busy third round allowed him to come back for the draw. Since then he seems to have been basically forgotten as Nick Diaz moved over from Strikeforce and Carlos Condit moved into title contention. These two will fight for the interim welterweight title next year while GSP recovers from surgery and resumes his training with the winner being the #1 contender when Rush returns to the Octagon. So things were already looking less than bright for Fitch's title hopes. Add to that the fact the both Diaz and Condit have styles (and in the case of Diaz, a personality) custom made for PPV fans and things looked even more bleak for Fitch. Then there is all the confusion about who would have actually faced GSP originally...first it was Diaz, then Condit, then back to Diaz...which means that I can see the loser of Diaz vs Condit becoming the #2 contender. I think that would be a fight most fans would still want to see, it would make more business sense I would presume and Dana, famous for rewarding loyalty to him and his company, would I think feel inclined to give the nod to the loser despite the loss. Then there is also Jake Ellenberger lurking somewhat quietly in the background.
So going into UFC 141 things were already looking bleak for Fitch before the fight title-wise, so to get clean knocked out 12 seconds into the first round is an absolute disaster for him. Although he didn't look to be hurt I would imagine that his motivation now is at rock bottom. He could be looking at another two - three year journey to get back into title contention again and that is assuming he is able to win his matches. Then he still has the problem of trying to wow the audience and win fans as well as fights. His last two outings (UFC 127 & UFC 141) have done a lot of damage to his career. Personally I think this fight ended Fitch's chances of realistically claiming the title. I am sure he will continue to fight but as someone up and coming martial artists need to go through to progress in their own march to the title. A 'gatekeeper' then.
Johny Hendricks is another WEC fighter who has made the transition to the UFC look easy. His KO of Fitch is about as textbook as you will ever see. It was the kind of punch you could see in an instructional martial arts video and think to yourself 'Nah, that would never work like that in real life'. It is up there with Silva's front kick to Vitor Belfort's face and Lyoto Machida's jumping front kick to defeat Randy Couture. It shouldn't have been possible to land such a sweet punch, but it most definitely was. Nothing to fault in his short performance and a job well done. Fully deserving of Ko of the Night for UFC 141.
Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 141
A special mention for Gustafsson. I was very impressed with this Swedish fighter and wonder if he could be a good match up for Jon Jones in the future. I noted in my review of UFC 140 that Jones is not so much dominant any longer because of his unorthodox style but because of his natural attributes (his height, weight and reach) but in Gustafsson there is a fighter who can match the current champion as far as physical endowments are concerned. Alexander lost to Phil Davis at UFC 112 and was easily outclassed by Davis's wrestling skills, but as fought well otherwise. His stand up looked very good and his own height will counter Jones' clear advantage that he enjoys over other strikers in the division. Obviously any title fight is going to be a long time in coming but if Jones remains champion Gustafsson is someone who might challenge him if the Swede can keep on winning.
Summary of UFC 141
UFC 141 was a great card with some excellent fights. Much more of a series of striking battles than wrestling I am sure a lot of fans were happy. It has totally thrown me as to what day it is today given that the event was held on a Friday night, but that aside, I really enjoyed it. Given that there was no submission bonus, I would have liked to have seen Gustafsson pick up a second KO of the night bonus. Great stuff though and looking forward to a busy 2012.
