UFC 142 Prediction

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I want to do this prediction a little differently as the two fights I want to focus on match fighters with similar styles and both fights fall into the classic grappler vs striker match up that we have been at both UFC 141 and last week's Strikeforce event. Any prediction therefore is going to fall into the same old 'If the grappler gets the fight to the ground, he will win, if not, the striker will take the match'. I will get onto what will be more of a discussion than a prediction later, but first let's take a look at the fighters.

In the 15 odd months that Jose Aldo has been a UFC fighter, he hasn't had the best of luck injury wise. He was affected by a neck injury when he first came over from the WEC and suffered various injuries in his first title defense against Mark Hominick at UFC 129. This delayed his second title defense which Dana White stated may have then been against Chad Mendes. Instead Aldo defeated Kenny Florian by unanimous decision at UFC 136. He goes into this fight widely regarded as being one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world, with his position generally varying in different rankings from third (behind Anderson Silva and GSP) to fifth (behind Anderson Silva, Jon Jones, GSP and Frankie Edgar). Aldo comes from a strong athletic background and is an expert in Muay Thai and skilled in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He is particularly known for his strong Thai kicks, devastating knees and combination attacks.

Chad Mendes goes into the UFC 142 title match undefeated in his MMA career which has included fights in the WEC and UFC. He is primarily a wrestler with excellent take downs. Personally I don't see him as having the same versatility as Aldo or the same experience fighting the top people in his division. I think he goes into the fight as the underdog with less of a puncher's chance and more of a grind-it-out-for-the-win kind of chance. Both of Aldo's UFC title defenses have gone the distance and if the same situation arises at UFC 142 I would expect Mendes to have a better chance than either Hominick or Florian.

Vitor Belfort was brilliant in his early career and fought and beat some of the top names in MMA. After departing from the UFC he continued to put together a mixed record, but generally against quality opponents. After his return to the UFC he eventually ended up facing Anderson Silva at UFC 126, a match that he lost in dramatic fashion when Silva unleashed a perfect front kick (which the actor Steven Seagal took plenty of credit for...) to the face of Belfort. He came back to dispatch Akiyama at UFC 133 seemingly easily, but it should be noted that Akiyama's training and life had been disrupted by the massive earthquake that took place earlier in the year. Going into the fight Belfort is commonly regarded as being the #2 middleweight in the world. That doesn't necessarily make him the #1 contender however as it is clearly too soon for a rematch with Anderson Silva for the belt. Belfort therefore has far more to lose in this fight if he doesn't win compared to Anthony Johnson.

Anthony Johnson has put together an impressive MMA record primarily utilizing his wrestling skills at welterweight. This is his first fight at middleweight and also marks his highest profile match to date. His most notable loss came to Josh Koscheck at UFC 106. As with Mendes matching up with Aldo, I feel that Johnson is significantly stepping up his game to face Belfort, particularly as the fight will be taking place in Rio which means that pretty much the entire crowd will be behind the veteran.

The main events at UFC 142 interest me because they are a continuation of the grappler vs striker theme that has been prevalent in some high profile fights over the last couple of weeks. First we saw Overeem's brilliant strategy that he used to defeat Brock Lesnar at UFC 142 (Alistair Overeem being the striker, Lesnar the grappler). Last week at the Strikeforce event we watched King Mo Lawal (wrestler) beat Lorenz Larkin (striker) and Tyron Woodley (wrestler) defeat Jordan Mein (striker / BJJ). The interesting thing about the Strikeforce fights is that the strikers did what a kickboxer typically does against a grappler, and the very thing that Overeem avoided doing. That is, both Larkin and Mein had their attention fixed on their upper bodies, throwing punches and hoping to rely on the sprawl to defend against the takedown. With their attention so high they both found it difficult to react to the takedown attempts executed by Mawal and Woodley. The result is that the advantage went with the two wrestlers in both matches and both won. Compare that to Overeem (striker). By concentrating his attention on his lower body and throwing knee strikes as his primary method of attack, he was able to put off Lesnar who couldn't risk shooting in low and being met with a knee to the face.

So once again at UFC 142 we have two classic striker vs wrestler match ups. The advantage in both cases in terms of ability, experience and home field advantage seems to lie with the Brazilians. However if one or both of them does not display a satisfactory strategy for dealing with the take downs that both Chad Mendes and Anthony Johnson are sure to shoot for then both fights are going to end up on the ground. Jose Aldo and Vitor Belfort have excellent BJJ skills but the wrestling of Mendes and Johnson is, I feel, at a higher level. As I mentioned earlier Aldo in particular, given his inability to end his last two fights without going to a decision, could be in a lot of trouble if Mendes is able to take him down repeatedly and the fight goes on for the full duration again. So while I continue to give the advantage to Aldo and Belfort I think their strategy for dealing with the takedown will play a crucial role in determining both the nature of the fights at UFC 142 and the outcome.

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